Modeling Commodity Fluctuations Using Auto Gasoline as an Example & Variations du Produit du modelage Utilisent de l'Essence de l'Auto comme un Exemple por Diana Kanecki

August 23, 2019

Modeling Commodity Fluctuations Using Auto Gasoline as an Example & Variations du Produit du modelage Utilisent de l'Essence de l'Auto comme un Exemple por Diana Kanecki

Titulo del libro: Modeling Commodity Fluctuations Using Auto Gasoline as an Example & Variations du Produit du modelage Utilisent de l'Essence de l'Auto comme un Exemple

Autor: Diana Kanecki

Número de páginas: 57 páginas

Fecha de lanzamiento: March 12, 2010

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Diana Kanecki con Modeling Commodity Fluctuations Using Auto Gasoline as an Example & Variations du Produit du modelage Utilisent de l'Essence de l'Auto comme un Exemple

Introduction


This booklet will present a method on how to use information available from common sources as the department of energy to generate a model to predict future value of a commodity. The future value of a commodity choosen in this example is the price of gasoline. The model presented was validated with the 2005 and 2008 auto gasoline price changes.
To use the model, I would recommend using a spreadsheet program as with Open Office or other vendors. The spreadsheet program will allow you to enter the equations easily and to determine the results. In addition, this presentation is developed so that the any method computer or manual can be used to predict future value of a commodity.
Section 1 of this booklet explains the philosophy of the model. Then, section 2 presents the results for March 2010 to December 2010 predicted by the model along with the dates of maximum value and minimum value for the prices of a gallon of autogas. Section 3, contains the mathematical model, and section 4 contains the table setup for spreadsheet use of the model.
With this method, you can predict future value of a commodity using available historical data and data that reflects changes in current market dynamics. The changes in market dynamics can be due to a change in behavior or paradigm as the 2005 Katrina Hurrican effect, the 1973 Oil shortage effect, or the 2008 Oil speculation effect.
I am interested in your thoughts; please feel free to contact me at [email protected]

Table of Contents

Introduction2
Biography3
Section One – Philosophy6
Section Two – Predicted Results for March 2010 to Decmember 20108
Section Three – Mathmetical Basis of Model11
Section Four – Tables For Spreadsheet Use16
Table 1 – Gasoline Prices Arranged by Week and Year17
Table 2 – Adding the Ratio to the Table Using the R function18
Table 3 – Determining the Future Value after adding the F function and initial seed value19
Table 4 – Price Curve Using Model 221
Section Five – Spreadsheet Template23


Variations du Produit du modelage Utilisent de l'Essence de l'Auto comme un Exemple25
Présentation26
Biographie27
Section Un- Philosophie28
Section Deux- a Prédit des Résultats pour mars 2010 à Decmember 201029
Section Trois- Mathmetical Base de Modèle32
Section Quatre- Tables Pour feuille de calcul Utilisent36
Table 1- Essence demande le prix d'a Arrangé avant Semaine et Année37
Table 2- Addition la Proportion à la Table Utilise le R fonctionne38
Table 3- Détermine la Valeur du Futur après addition qui le F fonctionne et semence initiale évalue39
Table 4- Courbe du Prix Utilise le Modèle 240